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While Sony cites “consumer preferences” for digital games as the core reason for its decision to abandon physical PlayStation releases, the numbers presented in a new report tell a different story. Games like Marvel’s Spider-Man 2 are still making a ton of money on disc, according to Rhys Elliot of Alinea Analytics, and Sony’s decision to end discs is much more about controlling the overall market for PlayStation games.
Marvel’s Spider-Man 2 earned $1.2 billion in gross revenue, according to the estimates in Elliot’s latest newsletter, 35% of which was made up of physical unit sales. Ghost of Yotei made $400 million, with 37.6% physical. Astro Bot hit $275 million with 46.8% physical. Death Stranding 2 made $129 million, with 41.8% physical.
Why are these numbers so much higher than we’ve seen from other sources, including Sony itself? For one thing, many of the previous numbers have been counting unit sales, not revenue. For another, Alinea’s numbers are about revenue generated, not units sold. And, of course, here we’re talking purely about “prestige single-player” games, whose audiences are more likely to buy physical.
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“Physical revenue is huge in the prestige single-player games Sony is getting more cautious about,” Elliot argues, noting that “a disc dollar is worth less to Sony than a digital one, as there’s the retailer cut, manufacturing and distribution.” Certainly, Sony would prefer if it were able to keep 100% of the revenue from these games, and it’s betting that whatever players it loses by ditching physical releases will be offset by increased net profits.
So, Elliott argues, “the disc decision was largely about margins, control, and killing the secondhand market,” rather than a recognition of consumer trends. We all likely could have guessed as much, and these factors are exactly why I’ve argued that PlayStation killing discs is bad for everyone, but there’s some vindication in seeing the thought backed up by market analysis numbers. That doesn’t make the prospect of an all-digital PS6 any less annoying, though.