‘Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour’ Hits Tracking With $100M-$125M Opening Weekend Projection


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EXCLUSIVE: We promise that you’ll never find another one like this: AMC’s Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour concert movie hit tracking this morning with a $100M-$125M opening-weekend outlook when it opens on October 13 in cinemas.

These are industry estimates and do not come from AMC.

The Sam Wrench-directed concert film is really hot with women under 25, just a few points under Barbie ($162M opening) in the mid 20 range and is north of The Little Mermaid ($118.8M four-day opening) and Frozen 2 ($130.3M). Tracking has added other titles such as Elvis, Bohemian Rhapsody, A Star Is Born and Ocean’s 8 as comps against Taylor Swift: Eras Tour pulling its opening weekend average down to $85M. However, sources believe those comps are outliers.

Total Awareness and Definite Interest in Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour is also through the roof.

“This movie is a unicorn,” one razor-sharp box office analyst tells Deadline about the pic’s anomaly power at the B.O.

Look: we all know how tracking goes. Make no mistake: If Taylor Swift misses her mark and opens at $85M, that’s the biggest opening ever for a concert movie. Nothing to be ashamed about.

RELATED: Movie Release Date Calendar For 2023

Last week we told you that presales for Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour for the top three U.S. circuits –AMC, Regal and Cinemark–as well as Canada’s Cineplex and Mexico’s Cinepolis have amounted to $65M, which an atmosphere that superhero movies reach prior to a few days of opening weekend, read Strange in the Multiverse of Madness ($60M) and The Batman ($42M).

RELATED: ‘Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour’ Concert Film Has SAG-AFTRA Interim Agreement, Says Duncan Crabtree-Ireland

As we told you out of TIFF, Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour received a SAG-AFTRA agreement so that the 12x Grammy winner can promote the movie. Swift is on a break from her Eras Tour and won’t resume live shows until November 9 in Buenos Aires.

Concert films look to be making a comeback at the box office: the Talking Heads reunion out of TIFF for their 40th anniversary of A24’s Stop Making Sense minted over $640,000 at 165 Imax locations, making it the best live event ever for the large format exhibitor. That 1984 Jonathan Demme directed concert pic is opening in 300 Imax auditoriums this weekend with word that many showtimes are already selling out.

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