The Last Dance’ $22M 2nd weekend, ‘Here’ Bombs

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SATURDAY AM: Refresh for more analysis and chart…Sony’s second weekend of Marvel Venom: The Last Dance is holding better than expected with -56% or $22.2M; which is the same second weekend percentage hold as 2018’s Venom. However, the studio isn’t looking at one-two punch with first and second as their release of Miramax’s Here is falling flat with $5.15M off a $50M production cost in fourth — which was to be expected. Even if this Robert Zemeckis-Tom Hanks-Robin Wright-scribe Eric Roth Forrest Gump reunion opened at its projection of $7M, it wouldn’t be anything to scream about. Here received a B-, which is the same grade as Zemeckis’ experimental dud Welcome to Marwen back in 2018.

By the way, Here isn’t the lowest opening for Zemeckis or Hanks. Zemeckis’ Welcome to Marwen crashed with a $2.35M over the Christmas holidays off a $50M production cost, while Hanks has seen lower with the famed 1990 bomb Bonfire of the Vanities ($4.2M unadjusted for inflation) and the 2020 pandemic release (when NYC, LA and many metro theaters were closed) with News of the World ($2.2M). Welcome to Marwen ended its domestic run at $10.7M.

PostTrak is also lackluster on Here with 3 stars or 69%. Sixty-six percent of the audience were 45, with close to half over 55. That tells you something about who was interested. Only 8% of the audience per PostTrak heard Here was good which is a red flag for word of mouth. Those who dared to spend cash came because of Hanks at 64%. Mostly female skewing at 58% with 72% Caucasian audience, 14% Latino and Hispanic, 6% Black, and 5% Asian. Whatever money is being made on Here is in the South, Midwest and Mountain regions with AMC Disney Springs in Orlando the top grossing cinema with just under $4K so far — not much.

How did we deem older-skewing Conclave from Focus Features at a $6.5M opening last weekend a success? It cost significantly cheaper at $20M, has a better audience exit at B+, with fantastic reviews at 92% certified fresh. It’s in the awards season mix, and it only eased -24% in weekend 2 with $5M in its second weekend. Here won’t be sticking around with a 60% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes and poor reviews at 40%.

With Here misfiring in the wake of such fall prestige fare as Saturday Night ($3.4M wide break, $9M domestic), The Apprentice ($1.6M, $3M domestic), and Piece by Piece ($3.8M opening, $9.4M domestic current), does this mean that the sophisticated adult marketplace is in peril? We’re certainly light years past the Weinstein Co days when awards fare morphed into events. Post Covid, if an upscale adult movie is doing $20M-$30M, consider it something of a success, all modest budgets considered. Granted, the home runs have been A24’s Everything Everywhere All at Once ($77.1M domestic, a draw for both old and 18-34s) and Civil War ($68.6M), however, poms poms can be waved for such movies as Searchlight’s Poor Things ($34.55M domestic, $117.6M global). Arguments are made that streaming has impacted the specialty side of the business, however, make a great buzzworthy critically acclaimed film, and you’ve got electricity, the immediate post Covd release of Everything Everywhere All at Once being exhibit A.

Hope resides this season in the smart, slow and steady release of NEON’s Cannes Palme d’Or winning Anora which is up 219 locations to 253 theaters in weekend 3 for an estimated $1.75M take (+93%). Each of those movies — Saturday Night, Apprentice, and Piece by Piece each had their own baggage to prevent audiences from spending disposable income at cinemas, and waiting for those titles at home. Talent reps believe in theatrical; know that it’s still more prolific for their clients than getting buried in a streaming movie on queue. The secret to the adult specialty landscape lies in more consistent event worthy movies, with proper P&A backing from their studios. In the same breath, it’s tricky out there: if a studio sees a dud coming, they’ll cut back their marketing spend close to release, which was the case with Sony and their Gamestop all-star ensemble dramedy Dumb Money last fall during the actors strike ($3.3M wide break opening, $13.9M final).

There’s a pair of Hindi films cracking the top 10 on Diwali weekend: Shree International’s horror comedy Bhool Bhulaiyaa at 754 sites which made $653K yesterday on its way to $2.1M for the weekend, and Moviegoers’ Rohit Shetty directed action movie Singham Again at 749 locations which posted $629K yesterday with a $2.08M 3-day. Both are collecting good ticket sales in Toronto, NYC, Vancouver, Chicago, Houston and San Francisco.

Warner Bros’ isn’t reporting grosses on Clint Eastwood’s possible swan song, Juror #2. I hear it’s booked at 35 sites and did pretty good last night with $90K. Warner’s defense is that the court room drama is more of an awards qualifying release ala Disney’s Daisy Ridley Young Woman and the Sea, but then sources tell me Juror #2 is getting zero awards push. There’s a defense either way for not reporting grosses. Generally, it’s bad practice — however, that’s for a wide release. In this case, by going limited, Warners saves face for the 4x Oscar winning, 94-year old Eastwood by avoiding any negative box office headlines. A guy as esteemed as Eastwood doesn’t need Megalopolis-like sour press at this point in his career, and Juror #2 is great movie at 93% certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes. As polished as the movie is from the filmmaker, it’s a same old-same old, we’ve seen this type of movie before, and he’s not starring in it (which is always a box office bonus). A wide release for Juror #2 could have risked a low single digit opening — and if this is Eastwood’s final film, then that’s not a great note to end on.

Other indie drudge:

For some, there’s still a business in Liam Neeson, the riches being in the home downstream, not in the upstream. Samuel Goldwyn’s gangster movie Absolution with at 43% from RT critics is booked at 1,518 and did $462K yesterday for $1.1M 3-day or $785 per theater. Neeson’s meat and potatoes action movie In the Land of Saints and Sinners from March 2023 opened to $1M at 896 theaters via Samuel Goldwyn. It ended its run at $2.2M stateside.

Viva’s animated movie Hitpig is looking at an estimated $945K from 2000 runs or $472 per location. The movie about a bounty hunter pig who finds himself trekking the globe with a free-spirited elephant he intended to capture received a B+. Jason Sudeikis, Andy Serkis, Rainn Wilson and RuPaul provide the voices. PostTrak audiences thumbed down the movie at 46% positive, while kids are 12 had zero patience for the film at 79%; they’re usually pretty kind. 50/50 male-female with the biggest demo being the over 55 bunch at 29%. Zero Latino and Hispanic audiences showed up, but 21% Black did as well as 68% Caucasian and 4% Asian American. Any pennies from this movie were found in Midwest and Mountain cinemas with the Hollywood 20 in Tennessee the movie’s top grossing venue with $2K so far.

All movies are grossing $71M this weekend which is 13% ahead of the same period a year ago when there weren’t any major studio wide releases. It’s also 20% ahead of 2022 when the marketplace lacked product due post-production’s holdup of movies made during Covid. However, this weekend is 38% behind the same first weekend of November 2019 when Terminator: Dark Fate tanked with a $29M opening, driving a $115.4M domestic weekend. Ah, the good ‘ole days.

Chart is coming

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Not exactly a jazzy weekend for the first frame of November which can typically be a launch pad for a big movie, but alas, the election, the election. Sony’s Marvel Venom: The Last Dance is looking to be down -63% with a second weekend of $19M after a second Friday in the mid-$5M range. That puts the Tom Hardy threequel at $82.9M at 4,131 sites.

Currently, the Culver City lot’s release of Miramax’s Here is coming up short of its $7M projection with a $5M opening at 2,647 locations in fourth off a $1.85M Friday, which includes $475K previews. Ya know how much Robert Zemeckis’ Tom Hanks-Robin Wright movie, Forrest Gump, opened to back in July 1994? $24.4M at 1,595 theaters, unadjusted for inflation.

Second goes to Universal/DreamWorks Animation’s Wild Robot at 3,231 sites is seeing a 6th weekend in the No. 2 spot with $6M, -12% which should get the feature close to $120M by Sunday.

Third is Paramount’s Smile 2 with a third weekend of $5.1M at 3,235, -46% and running cume by Sunday of $51M.

Fifth goes to Focus Features’ second weekend of Conclave at 1,796 theaters with a Friday of $1.25M and a 3-day of $4.2M, -36% and a ten-day of $14.1M.

FRIDAY AM: People weren’t just trick-or-treating, parading or creating an insane traffic jam grid block between Santa Monica Boulevard and Hollywood on Halloween — they actually went to the movies on Halloween: The top 10 titles saw an average 46% spike in business over Wednesday.

Sony’s Venom: The Last Dance ruled Halloween with $2.8M, +12%, for a first week of $63.9M. The Kelly Marcel-directed Marvel threequel starring Tom Hardy hopefully will do $20M in Weekend 2 after misfiring stateside with the trilogy’s lowest start of $51M. However, the Culver City lot also had the Miramax release of the Robert Zemeckis-Tom Hanks-Robin Wright Forrest Gump reunion Here, which posted $475K in previews from shows that began at 2 p.m. at 2,402 locations. That’s close to the same preview cash that Focus Features’ Conclave and A24’s We Live in Time have posted of late, with both doing $500K in their Thursdays. The hope is that this $50M drama, which shows generations of families on the same plot of land at a fixed camera angle, will open to $7M, maybe more if older sophisticated audiences find it — this despite awful reviews on Rotten Tomatoes of 38%. The pic is a distribution deal for Sony, which released such Hanks movies in recent years as A Man Called Otto and A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood.

Tracking firm Quorum gives props to Sony for having the audacity to release a movie just before the election. Some filmmakers have steered clear of that, with comedies in particular. Despite the poor reviews on Here, awareness for the film jumped from 28% to 37%, but interest remains low.

Here is the only major studio wide release this weekend. Jill Goldsmith has the indie preview for you later Friday.

The week and Halloween chart:

1) Venom: The Last Dance (Sony) 4,131 theaters, Thursday $2.8M (+12%), Wk $63.9M/Wk 1
2) Smile 2 (Par) 3,624 (+5) theaters, Thursday $1.7M (+78%), Wk $14.6M, Total $45.8M/Wk 2
3) Conclave (Foc) 1,753 theaters, Thu $767K (+6%), Wk $9.9M/Wk 1
4) The Wild Robot (Uni) 3,427 (-402) theaters, Thu $535K (+10%), Wk $9.1M, Total $113.9M/Wk 5
5) Terrifier 3 (Cine) 2,751 (-42) theaters, Thu $1.1M (+104%), Wk $7.6M, Total $47.2M/Wk 3