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With the last couple of October weekends stateside being off from the strike-laden marketplace a year ago, here’s hoping that superhero sequelitis and moviegoers’ erratic attitudes toward prestige fare don’t push the theatrical marketplace down further.
Sony this weekend has its Marvel title Venom: The Last Dance, which is bound to see its lowest opening in the trilogy (stateside that is) after the previous installment, Venom: Let There Be Carnage, opened to a franchise high of $90 million in October 2021, fueled by fanboys’ yearning to return to cinemas after Covid.
The original Venom once owned the October opening record in 2018 at $80.2M before 2019’s The Joker unseated it with $96.2M.
U.S.-Canada presales and tracking indicate an opening for Venom 3 that’s just under that of 2022’s Black Adam ($67M) at $65M. Overseas is looking at $85M — possibly higher — for an all-in global weekend of $150M. The threequel cost $120M before P&A. Previous installments cost around $110M.
Previews in U.S.-Canada start at 2 p.m. on Thursday. Young males under 25 are the first in, followed by older males over 25, which is to be expected on a comic book movie. The latest Venom is directed by the franchise’s longtime scribe and producer Kelly Marcel. Star Tom Hardy co-wrote the script with her and also produces in a story about Eddie and his nefarious alter ego Venom being on the run, this after being outed to the world in Let There Be Carnage.
The previous two Venoms received B+ CinemaScores. Reviews to dollars, the franchise has been critic-proof, with the first movie seeing a 30% rotten on Rotten Tomatoes and part two improving to 57% rotten. The first Venom made $213.5M domestic, $856M worldwide, while Let There Be Carnage made $213.5M domestic, $506.8M worldwide.
Venom: The Last Dance starts its international rollout Wednesday and will be out in 90% of the offshore landscape this weekend before adding France and Japan down the road.
In China, The Last Dance is leading midweek presales. However, given the overall softness of the market, we are not expecting anywhere near the first film’s $107M+ launch.
Let There Be Carnage came out staggered as the pandemic was easing. Geopolitics were different back then, with Russia contributing a lot to that film’s start.
Venom 2 at the time fed audiences hungry as the pandemic eased; it did 58% of its business overseas versus the first movie’s 75% (which included a China release, whereas Venom 2 did not see the inside of cinemas there).
Ralph Fiennes in ‘Conclave‘
SXSW
Meanwhile this week, Focus Features is opening its critically acclaimed papal thriller Conclave to $4M-$6M at 1,742 cinemas; previews start Thursday at 2 p.m. Coming out of Telluride and Toronto, Conclave, directed by Edward Berger and starring Ralph Fiennes, notched 95% fresh with critics on Rotten Tomatoes. Focus only bought domestic on the FilmNation title. We hear the whole production cost $20M.
Elsewhere stateside is A24 and Studio Canal’s wide break of the Andrew Garfield-Florence Pugh romance We Live in Time at 2,000 theaters. It is expected to see around $5M.