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Donald Trump didn’t wait to return to the White House before he started to shake up foreign policy. In the weeks leading up to his second inauguration, Trump proposed reclaiming the Panama Canal, acquiring Greenland and making Canada the 51st state, ideas soundly rejected by the leaders of Canada, Panama and Denmark, which owns Greenland.
Whether these proposals should be taken literally or seriously, or dismissed as distractions, it’s clear that foreign relations in the incoming Trump administration will be different from the Biden administration and possibly even the first Trump administration. That may have trickle-down effects on space policy, including how NASA works with its international partners.
Those topics are on the mind of leaders at the European Space Agency, which is examining how the new administration may change existing partnerships on exploration and science programs. Josef Aschbacher, director general of ESA, said that the agency’s members “spent more time than usual discussing the geopolitical context” during a meeting of the ESA Council in mid-December. “The situation might change quite significantly,” he said.
ESA dodged a bullet for one key cooperative program when NASA announced Jan. 7 its plans for Mars Sample Return (MSR). Both of the alternatives NASA will study use the Earth Return Orbiter that is ESA’s primary contribution to the program, dismissing concepts that would have used alternative means of getting Mars samples back to Earth.
Aschbacher said at a Jan. 9 briefing that ESA was “closely involved” in
NASA’s efforts and will now assess how the selections will affect its plans. At least one of the alternatives, which would adapt the sky crane technology used for the Curiosity and Perseverance rover landings, would do away with a secondary ESA contribution to MSR, a robotic arm to transfer samples. He said the agency will “consolidate our ESA position” on the missions by the spring.
The future of MSR, though, will be in the hands of the next administration, which could also examine the agency’s Artemis lunar exploration architecture that includes the Space Launch System, Orion spacecraft and lunar Gateway. ESA provides the service module for Orion and is building modules for Gateway.
Daniel Neuenschwander, ESA’s director of human and robotic exploration, said at the same briefing that ESA was studying its options should NASA decide to cancel SLS or other parts of Artemis. That was part of an approach he called “foresight, flexibility and alignment” to adapt to external changes and align them with the priorities of ESA’s members. “For exploration, there is a lot at stake,” he said.
European concerns about changes at NASA are exacerbated by the close relationship Elon Musk has with Trump. SpaceX provided a lifeline to ESA, launching several science and navigation missions when European rockets were unavailable, but Musk’s growing support for far-right parties in Europe, like Germany’s AfD, has made many in Europe uneasy.
Recent reports that Italy is negotiating a contract with SpaceX for secure connectivity services using Starlink created new worries in Europe that Musk might be seeking to undermine the IRIS² constellation led by the European Commission with support from ESA.
At the briefing, Aschbacher dodged questions about Musk. “We see SpaceX as a partner to launch spacecraft as and if needed,” he said, a need now diminished with both Ariane 6 and Vega C in service. He added that he had yet to speak with Jared Isaacman, Trump’s choice as NASA administrator, but would be “very quick to seek an appointment” with Isaacman once confirmed.
Concerns about changing relationships with NASA could benefit ESA, though. ESA is preparing for its next ministerial conference in November where it will likely ask member states for significant budget increases for new programs. At the briefing, Aschbacher noted ESA’s budget is only one-third of NASA’s and, while members can be “very proud” of what ESA has done, additional funding would allow it to do more.
“ESA and Europe will be ready to adjust, to find its own priorities, which are certainly linked to increasing our strength and autonomy,” he said, “and also be a very good partner internationally.”
This article first appeared in the January 2025 issue of SpaceNews Magazine with the title “A new state.”