Products You May Like
A decade ago, startups raising money to launch commercial weather satellites were convinced they had a goldmine on their hands because they could improve forecasting models. The problem? NOAA spent years evaluating the commercial observations before acquiring limited datasets under short-term contracts. Many of the businesses, figuratively and literally, never got off the ground.
Now, some of those same entrepreneurs see another opportunity. They expect the second Trump administration to reshape the market for their data and push tens of millions of dollars in new money toward their businesses.
“We could see significant increases in the amount of commercial data being used to improve weather forecasting,” said Jim Bridenstine, the former NASA Administrator and former Republican congressman, who pressed the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to begin buying commercial weather data a decade ago when he chaired the House Science, Space and Technology Environment Subcommittee. “If there was ever an administration that could see the value in commercial data and move forward on it, it’s the second Trump term.”
Do no harm
The commercial weather sector has attracted tens of millions of dollars in recent years to develop instruments and launch weather satellites. Still, the vast majority of data feeding public and private forecasting models comes from NOAA’s National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service (NESDIS) and its international partners, who freely share observations made by satellites they own and operate. This includes life and property-saving models and forecasts for hurricanes, tornadoes and other severe storms.
The Heritage Foundation’s conservative blueprint for the next four years, Project 2025, calls for breaking up NOAA and commercializing National Weather Service forecasting operations. The National Weather Service “provides data the private companies use and should focus on its data-gathering services,” according to the 900-page document.
“Because private companies rely on these data, the National Weather Service should fully commercialize its forecasting operations.”
Prior to the election, President-elect Trump distanced himself from Project 2025. However, Project 2025 contributors have been nominated for key White House jobs, making it unclear how closely the administration will follow its recommendations.
Not even the most zealous commercial weather proponents expect the government to stop operating weather satellites anytime soon. Instead, they expect the incoming administration to maintain the government data backbone while adopting policies to foster the commercial weather sector.
“The number one thing is do no harm as it relates to weather forecasting and prediction,” Bridenstine said. “At the same time, given the technological advances happening today and the capabilities that exist in the venture capital and innovation spheres, we could unleash tremendous amounts of new data, different types of data, additional data to feed the numerical weather models and fundamentally transform our ability to predict weather.
“We need the government to recognize that when innovators are competing against each other to produce new types of data, additional data and lower-cost data, that competition improves weather forecasting, drives down the cost to the taxpayer and creates a virtuous cycle of improvement for weather forecasting.”
Lives and property
NESDIS has steadily expanded its purchase of commercial weather data in recent years, from $5 million in 2017 to $27.5 million in 2024. Industry executives welcome that increase but note that $27.5 million is about 1.5% of NESDIS’ $1.8 billion 2024 budget.
“The United States government has done a phenomenal job in combining the strength of the public sector and the strength of the private sector for its space-based capabilities,” said Peter Platzer, founder and executive chairman of Vienna, Virginia-based Spire Global, which gathers weather data and tracks aircraft with a fleet of more than 110 cubesats. “When you think about satellite communication, satellite launch, satellite imagery, those are things the government used to do by themselves. Now, they leverage the private sector for these things and continue to do the exquisite things.”
By comparison, U.S. weather agencies rely far more on government owned and operated constellations. NESDIS officials, who declined to comment for this article, often point out that Congress determines funding levels for commercial data purchases. What’s more, NESDIS must thoroughly assess the quality of commercial data before ingesting them in its weather warning models.
Unleashing innovation
Even so, NESDIS’ Commercial Data Program could be accelerated without jeopardizing forecast quality, said Rei Goffer, co-founder and chief strategy officer at Boston-based Tomorrow.io.
“I don’t want to discount government science and innovation, but I would shamelessly pitch here that the commercial data budget should be 10 times the size that it is,” Goffer said Dec. 5 during a SpaceNews webinar on extreme weather.
Without specifying a new funding level, other weather company executives said they anticipated a marked increase in government funding for commercial products and services.
“We expect this next administration to unleash innovation and efficiency in the commercial sector to help field capabilities a lot quicker,” said Shawn Cochran, CEO of space weather startup Ethereal Space of Greenwood Village, Colorado.
If that happens, Platzer said, “the private sector will do what it does best: operationalize and deliver at a high cadence, at a very attractive price point, in large volume, capabilities that are built upon the inventions that have been funded by the public sector.”
Buying signals
2024, NOAA’s Commercial Weather Data program awarded contracts for microwave sounder data with a combined value of about $4.7 million to Tomorrow.io and Orbital Micro Systems of Boulder, Colorado. Another $6.5 million went to PlanetiQ of Golden, Colorado, and $3.8 million to Spire to supply observations from Global Navigation Satellite System radio occultation receivers for operational weather forecasts.
Companies developing weather satellites and instruments said they could deliver much more data if NESDIS published its requirements.
“The buying signals from NOAA could be dramatically improved,” Cochran said. “If you have a capability that meets documented requirements for observational priorities, you should be able to sell that capability to an agency that needs the data. We expect that we’re going to see that” in the new administration.
By encouraging companies to play a greater role in supplying weather data, the second Trump administration could set the stage for commercial constellations to eventually replace multibillion-dollar government constellations, weather industry executives said.
“We don’t want any money up front, but we want a commitment for data buys,” said an industry executive, who asked not to be identified. “We’ll either build what we build and sell the data. Or if we fall on our face, they will be no worse off than they are now, with no out-of-pocket expenses.”
This article first appeared in the January 2025 issue of SpaceNews Magazine with the title “A Perfect Storm”