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FRIDAY PM: As of this minute, Todd Phillips’ audacious Joker: Folie à Deux is looking at an OK Friday of $20M, including last night’s $7M, and hoping to stay above $50M but could sink to $45M at 4,102 theaters. Numbers-wise, even though it was a PG-13 movie, this looks far too similar to The Marvels, which posted $6.6M previews, a $21.6M first day and disastrous 3-day of $46.1M. That movie actually was more expensive than Joker 2, $270M to $190M. The fear is that the bad word-of-mouth on this movie will make it increasingly frontloaded with a freefall on Saturday.
RelishMix noticed good social media metrics with the pic’s follower reach at 567.3M across TikTok, YouTube, X, Instagram and Facebook, which is 7% above superhero genre norms before opening. Lady Gaga’s fans across all platforms clocked 231.3M fans with 43.7M views feeding into her Instagram. However, the bad buzz post-Venice, where the movie clocked 62% fresh with critics on RT, seeped into presales, which were heard were not amazing ahead of opening.
Elsewhere, Universal’s DreamWorks Animation’s The Wild Robot at 3,997 venues is seeing a second Friday of $4.9M and a second weekend of $19.5M, -46%, for a 10-day of $64.7M.
Warner Bros. has better luck this weekend with Beetlejuice Beetlejuice at 3,576 sites, which will continue to hold in Weekend 5 at -30%. It’s posting a 3-day of $11.4M after a near-$3M Friday for a running total by Sunday of $266.5M, still the second-highest-grossing movie of September behind 2017’s It ($327.4M).
Fourth belongs to Paramount’s Transformers One at 3,106 locations with a third Friday of $1.35M, third weekend of $5.5M, -40% and a running total of $47.4M.
Fifth is Universal/Blumhouse’s fourth weekend of Speak No Evil at 2,274 sites, with $900K today, a 3-day of $3M, -30% for a running total of $32.7M.
Outside the top 5 is Lionsgate’s misfire White Bird with $650K today, and $1.5M-$2M opening for the weekend.
FRIDAY AM: Warner Bros’ Todd Phillips-directed sequel Joker: Folie à Deux earned $7M in previews that began at 3 p.m. Thursday. The number indicates that the $190M+ movie could get to a $50M opening, particularly when comped against movies that exceeded that threshold in their starts such as Mission: Impossible: Dead Reckoning – Part One ($7M last year), No Time to Die ($6.3M in 2021) and John Wick: Chapter 3: Parabellum ($5.9M in 2019).
Forget about the fact that Joker 2‘s previews are off by 47% from the first 2019 film’s $13.3M, which mushroomed to a $39.3M Friday and the biggest October domestic opening of all time with $96.2M. We knew that was going to happen.
What’s not funny is the Comscore/Screen Engine PostTrak audience exits for Joker 2, which tell a different story.
While many knew this Joaquin Phoenix-Lady Gaga combo would be challenged due to the fact that it’s a musical, the fanboys full-out rejected the sequel last night on PostTrak with a 1/2 star and 40% positive. Holy guacamole, Batman. Did the Megalopolis cynics show up last night? Because that’s the same Thursday night grade (actually 45% positive) that the Francis Ford Coppola-directed $120M dystopian epic received a week ago before inching up to one star on PostTrak. Or, wait, did PostTrak switch up the reports? Lionsgate’s Helen Mirren movie White Bird received five stars last night! That feature take on R.J. Palacio’s novel, which is a sequel and prequel to Wonder, is only expected to make $2M this weekend on 1,018 theaters after a $275K Thursday night. Reviews for the movie stand at 72% on Rotten Tomatoes.
A very low 24% say they’ll definitely recommend Joker 2 to their friends. God knows what this means for the sequel’s stability throughout the weekend. RT audience score for Joker 2 also is in the gutter at 36%, with critical reviews plummeting from 62% fresh to 39% Rotten.
BTW, CinemaScore exits usually are more gentle than PostTrak, but God knows where that will be. Megalopolis received a D+ last weekend. Also, Joker 2‘s previews are $400K higher than the $6.6M The Marvels, which fell apart with a $46.1M opening last November — the lowest ever for a Marvel Studios Disney title.
Rest of the week was as follows:
1.) The Wild Robot (Uni) 3,962 theaters, Thu $2M (+9% from Wednesday), Wk $45M/Wk 1
2.) Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (WB) 3,804 theaters, Thu $972K (-12%), Wk $20.9M, Total $255M/Wk 4
3.) Transformers One (Par) 3,970 (-8) theaters, Thu $602k (-1%), Wk $11.9M, Total $41.7M/Wk 2
4.) Speak No Evil (Uni) 2,971 (-704) theaters, Thu $287K (-28%), Wk $5.9M, Total $29.7M/Wk 3
5.) Devara Part 1 (Prath) 1,040 theaters, Thu $78K (-40%), Wk $5.57M/Wk 1
6.) Megalopolis (LG) 1,854 theaters, Thu $233K (-34%), Wk $5.4M/Wk 1