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Earlier this week, China successfully deployed the first elements of what could become the second satellite megaconstellation—China’s own version of Starlink. While the 18 communication satellites worked as expected, the same cannot be said for the Long March 6A rocket that delivered them. US Space Command has confirmed that the rocket has broken up into hundreds of pieces that could threaten future space operations.
China launched the rocket from the Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center on Aug. 6, kicking off its “Thousand Sails” satellite internet program. The first phase of the network, which is operated by the state-run Shanghai Spacecom Satellite Technology (SSST), will consist of 1,296 satellites. According to SSST, more than 600 of those could be in orbit by the end of 2025.
The first 18 flat panel communication satellites are still up there but may run into problems. The rocket’s upper stage has now disintegrated, creating a cloud of debris at an altitude of almost 500 miles (800 kilometers). That’s high enough that it’s not a threat to most spacecraft right now, but the debris is so high that it could take decades to reenter the atmosphere. In the meantime, it’s probably a greater threat to the Thousand Sails satellites than anything else, as it will intersect with their orbits often.
Pieces of the Long march rocket drifting around in orbit.
Credit: Slingshot Aerospace
US Space Command has confirmed at least 300 pieces of trackable debris, but some third parties are seeing even more than that. Independent space monitoring firm LeoLabs has estimated that there are at least 700 fragments from the rocket break-up and as many as 900. Space Command says the debris does not currently pose a danger to US operations, but that’s a lot of debris to add to an already cluttered region.
It is unclear what caused the upper stage to go to pieces, but China’s state-run launch provider Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) did note that its Long March 6A was a new variant. The upper stage could ignite its engines multiple times, allowing it to access higher orbits. It’s possible this change led to an unforeseen failure mode. The upper stage should have been shut down after deployment, though. When spacecraft are no longer needed, it’s standard to expend all stored energy and propulsion capability, a process known as passivation. It’s conceivable that CASC was unable to complete that step, leading to the break-up.
US Space Command and private aerospace firms like SpaceX will probably monitor future Thousand Sails launches. At maximum payload capacity, China’s plans will require about a dozen more launches before the end of 2025. If even a few of them result in debris clouds, space around Earth could become much more dangerous.